Market outlook for this week 14-Mar-2016 to 18-Mar-2016

# As we have seen short term trend in Nifty has changed to BUY. We have seen the Nifty Index traded  with a range of 100 points entire week.

#As per the previous week report nifty has taken resistance 7450 and closed on Friday with weekly gain of around 25 points.

#The ECB last week has given a hefty stimulus increasing the depth and breadth of its stimulus package. The Central Bank reduced all 3 main interest rates pushing the deposit rate further into negative territory to -0.4% from -0.3% in order to boost inflation.

#Ahead of the coming week, The most likely  events which will affect the markets.The Federal Reserve is not expected to take action on interest rate at the conclusion of its two day policy meeting at 18:00GMT, or 2:00PM ET, on Wednesday.

Our Free Positional call: (NIFTY Positional call)
Our fund performance : (NIFTY Fund Performance)

# Economic data:

March 14 2016
12:00 PM    WPI Inflation YoY FEB
12:00 PM    WPI Fuel YoY FEB
12:00 PM    WPI Food YoY FEB
12:00 PM    WPI Manufacturing YoY FEB
05:30 PM    Inflation Rate YoY FEB
06:00 PM    Balance of Trade FEB

#. As per the fund flow in NIFTY FII’s have the buy position on other side DII’s are supporting the market with their average buy position.

Technical Nifty index data:

1) NSE maintain at 0.89 with 2902 Advance and 3248.
2) Nifty Index market maintain at 1.04 with 101 Advance and 97 Declines.
3) PE: 20.27
.4) RSI: 46.41
5) PUT/CALL Ratio (PCR): 0.96
6) INDIAN VIX: 17.10

NIFTYWeekly report14-18march

#. Above technical and fundamental data NIFTY may take resistance at 7550-7582-7605 if further a positive close above 7600 may pave the way to test 7680-7700-7720- 7750- 7810 -7840-7890.

On the other hand, any weakness at 7470-7440-7425 band, the sell-off below 7425 may drag the Index to 7400-7375-7350-7335-7270-7240- 7225-7185-7140- 7070-7040-6960 levels this week

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Market outlook for this week 8-Mar-2016 to 11-Mar-2016

# As we have seen short term trend in Nifty has changed to BUY.we have seen the Nifty Index traded  with a high volatility last week due to the Union Budget.

# The Global Markets rally continues yet another day on the cues from the ECB to announce hefty stimulus on 10th March. The RBI Interest cut expectation is still boosting investors sentiment.

Our Free Positional call: (NIFTY Positional call)
Our fund performance : (NIFTY Fund Performance)

# Economic data:

Friday March  11 2016  05:00 PM
Foreign Reserves 4/MAR
Industrial Production YoY
Manufacturing Production YoY

#. As per the fund flow in NIFTY FII’s have the buy position on other side DII’s are supporting the market with their average buy position.

Technical Nifty index data:

1) NSE maintain at 2.18 with 5264 Advance and 2420 Declines.
2) Nifty Index market maintain at 2.44 with 176 Advance and 72 Declines.
3) PE: 20.24
4) RSI: 45.88
5) PUT/CALL Ratio (PCR): 1.00
6) INDIAN VIX: 17.88

weekly report

weekly report

#. Above technical and fundamental data NIFTY may take resistance at 7520-7555  if further a positive close above 7555 may pave the way to test 7580-7670-7700-7760-7815-7850.

On the other hand, any weakness at 7520-7555 band, the counter rally with a profit booking may drag the Index to 7400-7365 band, further sell-off below 7365, may drag
the Index to 7330-7300-7265-7240-7225-7180-7140-7070-7000-6970 levels this week.

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Market outlook for this week 21-DEC-2015 to 25-DEC-2015

As we have seen short term trend in Nifty has changed to BUY. Global markets were in range and not able to give breakout. The FII’s have been short in the futures worth – 2836.16 Crores in the Indian markets in this months. but from last two days we have seen buying in NIFTY. #Fed has increased the rates by 25 basis points and stated that the rates would be hiked gradually depending upon the further developments in the economy.US market given rally before #FED announcement buy from last 2 days we have seen some selling pressure. There is no output form Parliament is heading for another washout and despite outrage among citizens, parliamentarians are just not making any efforts to get #GST bills passed

Our Free Positional call: (NIFTY Positional call)
Our fund performance : (NIFTY Fund Performance)

Event and Economic data:

Friday December 25 2015                 Previous
05:00 PM Foreign Reserves 18/DEC         $352.51B
05:00 PM Deposit Growth YoY 11/DEC         10.4%
05:00 PM Bank Loan Growth 11/DEC         9.8%

25-Dec-2015    Friday    Christmas holiday

As per the fund flow in NIFTY FII’s have the sell position on other side DII’s are supporting the market with their buying position.

Technical Nifty index data:

1) NSE maintain at 1.54 with 3686 Advance and 2397 Declines.
2) Nifty Index market maintain at 1.65 with 153 Advance and 93 Declines
3) PE: 20.99
4) RSI: 42.42
5) PCR: 0.78
6) VIX: 14.49

NIFTY Levels

Above technical and fundational data NIFTY may take support at 7715-7696-7666  if further selling  then nifty can touch 7625-7600-7585-7550-7468-7435-7400 this week.

On the other hand,  any good news and events NIFTY Index resistance 7765-7788-7815 band, any buying above 7815 may test the Nifty to 7850-7885-7940-7980-8000-8050-8080-8110 level this week.

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Market outlook for this week 14-DEC-2015 to 18-DEC-2015

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade at the conclusion of its two day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET on Wednesday. The central bank will also release its latest forecasts for economic growth and interest rates. The markets have, for the most part, already priced in a Fed rate hike, which is expected next week. On Thursday fed funds futures indicated an 80% chance of a rate hike. It would be the first move in roughly 9 years.The government’s main focus will be on the passage of the key GST Bill.

Our Free Positional call: (NIFTY Positional call)
Our fund performance : (NIFTY Fund Performance)

Event and Economic data:

Monday     December 14 2015          Previous
12:00 PM  WPI Inflation YoY NOV     -3.81%
12:00 PM  WPI Manufacturing YoY NOV     -1.67%
12:00 PM  WPI Fuel YoY NOV         -16.32%
12:00 PM  WPI Food YoY NOV         2.44%
05:30 PM  Inflation Rate YoY NOV     5.0%
06:00 PM  Balance of Trade NOV         $-9.77B
07:30 PM  Current Account Q3         $-6.2B

Friday     December 18 2015         Previous
05:00 PM    Foreign Reserves 11/DEC     $352.1B

As the nifty open interest data shows proprietary and FII’s have the sell position on other side DII’s are supporting the market with their buying position.

Technical Nifty index data:

1) NSE maintain at 0.52 with 2087 Advance and 4035 Declines.
2) Nifty Index market maintain at 0.54 with 88 Advance and 162 Declines.
3) PE: 20.57
4) RSI: 37.91
5) PCR: 0.76
6) VIX: 17.18

NIFTY Weekly Level

NIFTY Weekly Level

Above technical and fundational data NIFTY may take support at 7560-7540-7505 in opening move if further selling  then nifty can touch 7482-7442-7402-7352-7325-7262-7230 this week.

On the other hand,  any good news and events NIFTY Index resistance 7620-7670-7715 band, any buying above 7710 may test the Nifty to 7752-7772-7802-7830-7861-7892-7952-8001-8032-8055-8112 level this week.

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Market outlook for this week 7-DEC-2015 to 11-DEC-2015

We have seen sell off in market even after #GDP and #RBI policy, As per our weekly report market took support 7780 and resistance around 8000.The Nifty unable to hold the crucial level of NIFTY 7860 and finally took support at 7780 level during the week even as FII”s continued to be net sellers.Asian markets are lowers.The #ECB cut its deposit rate on Thursday and extended its monthly asset buys by six months to boost stubbornly low inflation and lift growth. But the moves were considered by markets to be the bare minimum in the light of the bank’s previous signals. The U.S. economy added 211K jobs in November, all but cementing expectations that the #FED will opt to raise interest rates in December.

niftyweekly

Our Free Positional call: (NIFTY Positional call)
Our fund performance : (NIFTY Fund Performance)

The government has proposed heavy business in both Houses of Parliament next week, listing key legislation like GST and Real Estate bills for consideration and passage.Government has listed GST along with six other bills in Rajya Sabha for next week. Six bills have been listed in the Lok Sabha. The government’s main focus will be on the passage of the key GST Bill.

Event and Economic data:

Monday December 07 2015                                    Previous        Forecast
05:00 PM Current Account Q3                               $-6.2B           $-7.3B

Friday December 11 2015                                        Previous          Forecast
05:00 PM Foreign Reserves  4/DEC                     $351.62B
05:00 PM Bank Loan Growth 27/NOV                9.7%
05:00 PM Deposit Growth YoY 27/NOV             11%
05:30 PM Industrial Production YoY OCT          3.6%               2.5%
05:30 PM Manufacturing Production YoY OCT 2.6% 1.41%

As the nifty open interest data shows proprietary and FII’s have the sell position on other side DII’s are supporting the market with their buying position.

NSE nifty Open Interest

NSE nifty Open Interest

Technical Nifty index data:

1) NSE maintain at 0.81 with 2705 Advance and 3259 Declines
2) Nifty Index market maintain at 0.49 with 82 Advance and 166 Declines
3) PE: 21.04
4) RSI: 41.40
5) PCR: 0.79
6) VIX: 16.08

NIFTY weekly levels

NIFTY weekly levels

Above technical and fundational data shows and tells that week NIFTY Index resistance at 7822-7850 band, any pull-back above 7855 may test the Nifty to 7872-7902-7944-7982-8045-8085-8145 level this week.

On the other hand, NIFTY may take support at 7758-7710 levels sustain, then there will be sell of below 7710 nifty may touch the level of 7690-7676-7632-7592-7542-7516 this week.

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Market outlook for this week 30-NOV-2015 to 4-DEC-2015

We have seen rally in second half of previous week around 1.2 percent despite of china and hang song market panic, As per our weekly report market took support 7800 and resistance around 7945.The Nifty managed to hold 7800 level during the week even as FII”s continued to be net sellers and its a positive sentiment for Indian market.Asian markets finished broadly lower on Friday with shares in China leading the region. The Shanghai Composite is down 5.48% while Hong Kong’s Hang Sang is off 1.87% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 is lower by 0.30%.

Our Free Positional call: (NIFTY Positional call)
Our fund performance : (NIFTY Fund Performance)

Asian markets:

asian markets

The NDA government is keen to get GST Bill cleared in the current session so that it can be implemented from the new fiscal year. To pave the way for GST and other crucial legislation, Prime Minister Mr.  Modi along with Finance Minister Mr. Jaitley invited former Prime Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh and Congress President, Sonia Gandhi for discussion of parliamentary affairs on Friday evening. Apart from GST, Tuesday’s RBI credit policy will be the other key event next week. Economists expect the central bank to hold policy rates and there would not be any impact in the market.

Event and Economic data:

Actual Consensus Forecast
30-Nov 2015 Government Budget Value OCT INR-3785.63B -3880.8B
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 7.0% 7.3% 7.1%
Infrastructure Output YoY OCT 3.2% 2.45%
01-DEC 2015 Nikkei Manufacturing PMI NOV 50.7 51 50.63
Cash Reserve Ratio 4% 4% 4%
RBI Interest Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
03-DEC 2015 Nikkei India Services PMI NOV 53.2 52.89
04-DEC 2015 Foreign Reserves 27/NOV $352.37B

As the nifty open interest data shows proprietary and FII’s have and mixed sentiment towards the marekt but its first day of this expiry so its difficult get view from the open interest on other side DII are supporting the market with their continuous buying.

nse-nifty-open-interest

nse-nifty-open-interest

Technical Nifty index data:

1) NSE maintain at 1.26 with 3363 Advance and 2673 Declines
2) Nifty Index market maintain at 1.26 with 110 Advance and 87 Declines.
3) PE: 21.47
4) RSI: 45.1
5) PCR: 0.92
6) VIX: 16.70

NIFTY weekly levels

NIFTY weekly levels

Nifty index data shows and tells that week NIFTY Index resistance at 7992-8023-8055 band, any pull-back above 7870 may test the Nifty to 8096-8150-8195-8260-8278-8330 level this week.

On the other hand, NIFTY may take support at 7930-7870 levels sustain, then there will be sell of below 7870 nifty may touch the level of 7832-7812-7780-7740-7710-7645-7620 this week.

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